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Covid 19 Stats

I’ve been learning Data Analysis tools (Jupyter and Pandas) recently, so I thought I’d have a go at pulling together some stats on Covid 19.

Some of the stuff online is pretty impressive. But there wasn’t much about Scotland specifically. I had a look for myself.

I have found some great data from individuals such as Watty62. Impressed at their great work, gathering and tidying up the data.

So, some background:

  • Cases first started appearing in Scotland around 1st March.
  • Scottish Government started advising people to isolate around 12th March.
  • We started ‘social distancing’ around 17th March and that went official around 20th March.

Now, the number of new cases peaked at the end of March, around 30 days in and 10 days after we started isolating. But they have remained pretty steady since then.

I’m curious if the numbers are being inflated by an increase in the number of tests being carried out.

Chart of Number of confirmed Covid 19 cases, showing the numbers peak at around 400 news cases, after 30 days and fluctuating around the same number since

The percentage of cases identified in Scotland has been very similar to the UK wide stats, up until the last week or so. Does that mean things are improving in Scotland, maybe due to Scotland being less densely populated, or some other factor?

Chart showing the exponential growth of number of cases in Scotland and the rest of the UK, as percentage of population. Both lines look similar, with scotland dropping off slightly in the past week.

One of the big fears was that hospitals could be overrun. The number of cases currently in ICU appears to be flattening at just over 200. For comparison, the new hospital in Glasgow has capacity for 300 beds currently. So critical care capacity doesn’t look too bad. Hence, I guess, the focus shifting to other issues, like testing capacity and supplies of equipment.

Chart showing the number of patients in Intensive Care in Scottish hospitals, growing to over 200

Notebook available here.

Now I’m wondering how I can improve things. Is there anything interesting I can do with the data? Can I improve how it’s displayed?

Dated: 2020-04-13
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